Understanding HorseCalc

We post crap that looks like this:

 FREE SELECTIONS FROM WWW.HORSECALC.COM

HOLLYWOOD PARK 31 May 2009

Ra 1   Horse                  ML    FAIR
  3    EXCESSIVE BLEND       1.8    1.60
  1    NORTH RODEO           3.0    3.20
  6    SUMMERTIME           10.0    4.20
  5    WOMAN WARRIOR         4.0    4.40
  2    WILD APART            4.0    7.80
  4    WARREN'S APPEAL       6.0    7.90

and you're supposed to make sense of it.

The track and date are obvious, but what about the rest?

Ra 1 is race one, of course! The numbers under it are the program numbers for the horses.

Horse names are followed by the official morning line and what I've called FAIR.

FAIR is how the horses are ranked, by my idea of "fair odds." In retrospect, this wasn't the best choice in labels. What it really shows is the anticipated tote board price if people bet like I handicap. Projected tote? PROJ? Anyway, actual fair odds would be 25% higher.

Taken together, the odds form a morning line useful for finding perceived value.

Why not just use the actual morning line to find value? The morning line is an approximation of the tote board as reckoned by the local racing secretary. It is more an attempt to handicap the handicappers than it is to handicap the horses. Lines such as ours handicap horses.

Although the program ranks the horses top to bottom, that doesn't mean that the top selection is an automatic bet! Compare FAIR odds to the tote board for all horses. See if there is a chance for value.

Value comes from overlays. Overlays are horses whose payoffs exceed fair odds. Not my FAIR odds, but the unknown "fair" odds on the race. We can never know the real odds on a horse races. In reality, one horse has a 100% chance of winning and the others have zero.

In the sample race, the top choice was bet down to 0.50 while the 2nd choice went off at 4-1 and paid $10.20 when he out-bobbed the favorite on the wire. Exacta players could have boxed the top two for $8.50 in profit on one dollar plays.

Not big payoffs, but we're talking about a six horse race at Hollywood Park.

Ra 4   Horse                  ML    FAIR
  9    WIN FOR M'LOU         4.5    1.60
  1    GHOST SHADOW          5.0    8.50
  2    GAMBLING POKERFACE   20.0    8.50
  3    MAGIC YODELER         5.0    8.50
  4    ROTE                  5.0    8.50
  5    NECESSARY EVIL        3.5    8.50
  6    MI SUENO              4.0    8.50
  7    LENA MISS            20.0    8.50
  8    LAURA'S PLEASURE      8.0    8.50

What's strange about this race is all the 8.5 FAIR odds. They're all 8.5 because they're all first time starters and the program has no past performances to sort them by!

Races like this are what give maidens a bad name. You could make some assumptions based on the morning line or you could download your own data and try to sort the workouts, connections and breeding. You could also just keep your money in your pocket.

Ra 9   Horse                  ML    FAIR
 11    ELUSIVE CHIEF         6.0    5.00
 10    UTAH BEACH           12.0    6.70
 12    TREADWELL             8.0    6.70
  9    BOB BENOIT           10.0    6.80
  3    RAZOR CUT             5.0    6.90
 13    NO GRANDE             4.5    8.60
  5    SENOR AFORTUNADO      3.5    9.70
  6    STORMY GAME           8.0   10.70
 16    FLATTER ME AGAIN      8.0   20.30
  7    TYSPIKESHIGH         50.0   21.00
  1    LORD IN COMMAND      20.0   22.30
  8    FALSTAFF LANE        50.0   23.00
  4    TOOTUFFFORTHEDEVIL   50.0   24.50
 14    WILD HUNTSMAN        50.0   26.80

Race 9 is interesting. Notice the longshots at the bottom are also morning line long doggies. Also, the lowest morning line horses are in the middle, leaving us some nice prices on top.

You need to disagree with the tote board before you can hope to profit.